Two possible scenario for the future of electric car by 2050 WETO - H2

The World Energy Technology Outlook -2050 (WETO-H2) scenario analysis aims at:

• Identifying and quantifying technological breakthroughs that may lead to a significant market penetration of hydrogen as an energy carrier at European and global level by 2050.
• Providing a harmonized and coherent view of the possible emergence pathway of a hydrogen-based energy system, including contrasted hypothesis on resource availability and technology deployment.
• Assessing the implications of GHG emission reduction policies on the development of hydrogen as energy carrier, and vice versa.

Each car technology and driver category is fully characterized under different assumptions Variable costs associated car use and transport demand come from the main POLES modules, taking into account national taxing systems:

• Gasoline
• Diesel
• Hydrogen
• Electricity
• Natural gas

Researchers at the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems Research and Innovation (ISI) have developed two scenarios to define what will be the development of electric vehicles by 2050.

The first scenario, said dominance of the market, admits the almost-complete replacement of conventional fleet in Germany of around 45 million vehicles a rechargeable hybrid vehicles (known as "plug-in") and electric vehicles of by 2050. In this case, the energy needs would be about 70 to 90 terawatt hours (TWh) in total. To meet these needs, 8 coal additional medium sizes would be needed in Germany. If electricity comes from renewable energy sources in line with political progress, the review of emissions would be about 10 g CO2/km. In comparison, taking into account the complete chain of energy production, emissions of a vehicle are currently about 200 g CO2/km.

The second pluralist more realistic scenario exposes the rechargeable hybrid vehicles (known as "plug-in") and electric vehicles as a possible alternative vehicles on the roads. Experts from the ISI on the principle that in the coming years, fuels and propulsion mechanisms will simply be diversified. According to studies, these alternatives first pierce where their benefits have a value added (small vehicles for urban traffic, electric scooter, light commercial vehicles). The ISI considers the need for vehicles (plug-in hybrid and electric) to about 8 million by 2050, representing 17% of the current fleet. In this case, the need would be between 10 and 15 TWh: an amount of electricity that do not require construction of additional power.

According to Prof. Wietschel Martin, Director of the branch of the energy industry of the ISI, "the rechargeable hybrid vehicles (known as "plug-in") and electric vehicles have advantages over other solutions and individual mobility contributes to sustainable development. Even with the current energy mix, yields a positive balance of CO2 could be further improved through greater market penetration of renewable and a report charging [in the car] intelligent. “For the latter, the speed of change depends on fleet of a share in the development of technical parameters and other oil prices, batteries, the customer acceptance and policy instruments such as climate tax thresholds and CO2 emissions.

Category:

• Auto Innovation

• 
• 
• 
• 
• 
•